With the announcements of the 2009 – 2010 Fall schedules, it is now up to media buyers to start thinking about fourth quarter before the summer even starts. The challenge is to project the popularity of new and returning shows with only snippets to guide us in our estimates. Will Ugly Betty continue to lose her audience on Fridays? How will Scrubs do with a semi-new cast and new focus?

While we use a myriad of research tools at our disposal, past performance does not guarantee future success. . Buyers spend countless hours trying to predict what viewers will enjoy 4 months from now and then wait on pins and needles to see if they were correct. If you have a media department or even know a media person, take some time to pick their brain and get some insight into the process. It is an interesting mix of math and psychology

It’s not always easy, but it is always interesting. See the new fall schedule here- and start making your own predictions.

It is important to look at your media buy and see where you may lose the eyeballs. Are you running in highly DVRd shows such as Lost, The Office or Heroes? On average more that 20% of their viewers are watching it on their DVR. If you are buying a lot of news and sports, your commercials are pretty safe. Look at purchasing the first spot in or last spot out of break, or you may consider buying spots online before news stories to support your campaign. Yes, it’s annoying to sit through a commercial online, but I’ll take forced viewership over fast forwarded viewership any day. Now is the time for media people to show their creativity.

Of course as media people, we all complain about the DVRs and Hulu.com taking away our “Must See TV” but I’ll tell you a secret…I don’t know any person in media that doesn’t use their DVR. Obsessively. I don’t think I have watched a show at the programmed time in 6 years. Buffy, how I miss you.